State Agency Measures

Fish Management: Key Parameter for Restoring Salmon Populations

Issue Background

Fishery management programs directed at coho salmon obviously have significant impacts to populations. ODFW is mandated by the Oregon Legislature to manage fishery resources for use and enjoyment by present and future generations, and has been granted specific authority to control use and harvest through seasons, bag limits, license and tag requirements, restrictions on gear, area and time closures, etc., and to raise and distribute fish. Even before initiation of the Coastal Salmon Restoration Initiative (CSRI), there was significant concern over depressed coho populations, and management actions were implemented to halt the declines and begin restoration.

Many management activities influence populations. One critical management objective is to ensure adequate numbers of adults return to spawn annually to maintain reproduction. Unfortunately, spawning escapement targets established for the Oregon Coast Natural (OCN) coast wide aggregate were not always met over the past two decades. There are many reasons that escapement targets were not met, including difficulty in estimating the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) given extreme fluctuations in ocean productivity. MSY generally assumes consistent habitat conditions. In addition, development of a pre-season coho predictor model had not yet achieved an adequate degree of accuracy to assure attainment of spawner targets.

Because of concerns over declining coho, directed coho harvest has been largely eliminated since 1994 to allow nearly all returning wild coho to spawn. An entirely new concept for establishing allowable fishing impacts to wild coho has been developed as described in this plan.

The other primary management approach, stocking, is also being evaluated in light of the depressed condition of coho. Coastal coho hatchery programs have been intended to produce fish for fisheries, and have been largely successful toward that objective. However, there is concern that fish adapted for life in a hatchery may not be well adapted to the wild, and may alter the genetic makeup of wild salmon if significant interbreeding occurs. This is a widespread concern that is not isolated to coastal coho. Oregon has developed and adopted a Wild Fish Management Policy (WFMP) that was most recently amended and adopted in 1994. The policy is expressly intended to place emphasis on the health of wild fish stocks and to establish guidelines that protect wild populations from interbreeding with hatchery fish. WFMP has already been mostly implemented in coastal coho drainages, and all programs will be brought into full compliance under CSRI. In addition, as described in this plan, we will explore whether hatcheries can be successfully utilized to augment critically depressed wild populations and thus give a temporary but important boost toward restoration.

The fishery management measures described in this plan, coupled with habitat protection and restoration actions under CSRI, hold promise for reversing the decline of wild coho salmon populations and restoration of this valuable and aesthetic resource.

I. Factor for Decline: Harvest Impacts to Spawner Escapement

Historically, over harvest has been a significant factor in the decline of coho salmon. Excessive catch and/or harvest, times and areas open for harvest, mixed stock and targeted fisheries, and gear used have all been contributing factors. Setting appropriate harvest levels to meet spawning escapement goals is not simple. Wild Oregon Coast Natural (OCN) coho salmon stocks distribute widely in waters off Oregon, Washington, and California with varying contribution to regional ocean fisheries. Differing contribution rates to ocean mixed stock fisheries and directed terminal area fisheries combine to present serious challenges to Pacific Northwest fishery managers, the regional Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) responsible for coordinating and establishing management of these stocks off WA-OR-CA, and the Pacific Salmon Commission (PSC), a joint Canadian and US commission created under the Pacific Salmon treaty.

Beginning in the early 1980's, OCN coho salmon stock recruitment models for estimating pre-season abundance have evolved and been tested. These modeling efforts, and development of companion pre-season coho stock assessment models evaluating harvest impacts, are critical methodologies in providing the necessary foundation on which to manage OCN coho harvest impacts in PFMC area fisheries. Pre-season predictors have been historically based on spawner recruit relationships, maximum sustained yield, and "steady state" parameters for marine and freshwater survival and have not been adequate to manage OCN coho. It is important to evaluate variation in the stock-recruitment function for wild fish, varying environmental factors, statistically valid assessments of adult spawning escapement, and accurate data to assess incidental, bycatch, and hook and release data to determine total fishing mortality.

Biological Objectives:

1. Manage harvest impacts to strive for attainment of the spawner rebuilding criteria (as defined in ODFWIA1)for wild OCN coho on the timetable in Table 1.

   We will critically review the factors of ocean mixed-stock and terminal targeted harvest impacts on OCN coho stocks so that the collective impacts do not prevent meeting the appropriate OCN coho spawner escapement rebuilding criteria. However, ocean survival conditions play a large role in determining smolt to adult survival and escapement. Two sub-aggregate groups are already at or near the escapement criteria and should be able to reach the criteria by 1998 barring further declines in ocean conditions. The other groups are farther from the criteria and ocean survival will control the time required to meet them.

   Table 1: Coho escapement rebuilding objectives - year expected for populations to reach or exceed the spawner rebuilding criteria.

   	With Good Ocean Survival	With Poor Ocean Survival
   2 Groups meet criteria	1998	1998
   All groups meet criteria	2004	2040

   Table 1 was derived from estimates of potential production capacity based on the habitat based productivity model (Nickelson, T. E. and P. W. Lawson, in draft, Population Dynamics of Oregon Coastal Coho Salmon: Application of a Habitat-Based Life Cycle Model. ODFW Attachment 1). The model is not intended to be a pre-season population predictor, but in stead estimates potential population sizes given various assumptions about habitat capacity, population dynamics, harvest rates, environmental conditions and other factors. It should give general estimates of what population levels are possible under assumed conditions. For this use of the model, harvest impacts are assumed to remain in the lowest category until all four sub-aggregates attain the criteria, and then harvest impacts change as defined in the fishery adjustment matrix (ODFWIIIA1). While not a pre-season population predictor, the model suggests that the above time frame for meeting the criteria levels in each sub-aggregate are reasonable, barring some unforeseen disaster, such as further deterioration of ocean productivity. It is also uncertain how the floods of 1996 may have affected the eggs and juveniles present at the time. This table is a general guideline that should serve only as a benchmark to see how rapidly coho populations are progressing.

Actions / Measures:

ODFW111A1. Minimize Fishery Related Impacts and Develop a Future Management Strategy.

Phase 1. ODFW will maintain the present closures of directed coho fisheries and develop fishery management approaches that restrict coho harvest impacts in PFMC ocean fisheries and in Oregon terminal state water fisheries to increase the potential to meet the OCN coho salmon adult spawner rebuilding targets. Total fishery impacts will be maintained below the 20% maximum rate currently allowed under PFMC Salmon Fishery Management Plan (Amendment 11). Annual exploitation rate will be managed to not exceed 15%, or lower if escapement falls significantly below current depressed levels.

The new OCN coho adult spawner escapement rebuilding criteria (ODFWIA1) and associated fishery management regime for OCN are currently being proposed by Oregon to the PFMC and NMFS, as described in the paper by Don McIsaac (ODFW Attachment 2). This plan calls for: 1) disaggregation of OCN stock into 4 components for better management of weaker stock units (ODFWIA1), 2) setting new adult spawner escapement rebuilding criteria for each component derived from a model based on freshwater habitat assessment and production capability (ODFWIA1), and 3) establishing future OCN coho fishery-related exploitation rates under a restricted and very constrained fishery management regime (Table 2). The management regime has three tiers based on the parent (spawning) generation being below the spawner rebuilding criteria, at or above the criteria, or above 150% of the criteria. At that highest level, the grandparent generation must have achieved the criteria as well. All of the four sub-aggregate groups must attain the criteria before harvest impacts will be allowed to go to the next higher tier.

Table 2: Maximum total fishery impact (%) allowed in relation to increased parent escapement and improved ocean survival. Escapement criteria are defined in ODFWIA1. (For detailed explanation, see report by McIsaac in ODFW attachment 2.) 35%

Adult (Parent) Spawner Abundance, each area	Marine Survival
	Low	Medium	High
High (Parents attained upper criteria and grandparents met initial criteria)	15%	30%
Medium (Parents exceeded initial criteria)	15%	20%	25%
Low (Parents were below initial criteria)	<15%a	15%	15%

^a If escapement falls significantly below current levels, the maximum allowable impact will be lowered below the 15% level, although it is not possible to reduce impact to zero.

This regime represents a new concept of regulating fisheries, and allocates any incremental increase in harvest impacts above the current minimum rate only after demonstrated spawner escapement rebuilding criteria are met for all sub-aggregates under the three-tiered rebuilding system and with simultaneous improvements in ocean survival conditions for the brood year subject to harvest. The fishery management regime will establish a maximum hard exploitation rate cap of 35% and allocate never less than 65% of the annual abundance to spawning escapement. This maximum rate will only be allowed after meeting the highest escapement rate rebuilding criteria and realization of the best ocean survival conditions.

ODFW111A2 Manage Estuary and river Salmon Fisheries to Minimize Impact.

Phase 1. We will maintain coho fishery closures in most coastal rivers and estuaries to protect wild runs. Restrictive "special area" and "marked-only" coho fisheries targeting hatchery stocks using gear, location, and time restrictions will be applied to coho and other fisheries to limit incidental impacts to coho.

ODFW11IA3. Manage Trout Fisheries to Reduce Ecological Interactions and Mortality on Juvenile Salmonids.

Phase 1. We will manage trout fisheries in coastal basins to reduce ecological interactions and incidental harvest related mortality on juvenile salmonids. Stocking of trout in coastal rivers and streams has been relocated to standing waters to remove trout competition from salmon in streams, reduce any incidental impacts to anadromous trout and salmon from trout fishing, and provide increased trout fishing opportunity through maximizing the return of stocked trout.

ODFWIB1 Adult Escapement and Juvenile Coho Salmon Production Assessment

and

ODFWIIIC3 Assess Marine Survival

An essential element of the proposal is an extensive increase in adult spawner assessment coast wide, monitoring of freshwater juvenile survival and production, and estimation of marine survival of smolts. These actions are part of the ODFW monitoring plan, and will provide the information necessary to manage fisheries based on the matrix above and to monitor improvements in spawning coho populations resulting from these and other CSRI activities and natural factors. Phases 1 & 2.

2. To critically review and adjust spawning escapement targets for OCN coho stocks to ensure they are adequate to fully rebuild sustainable levels of natural production that utilize the available spawning and rearing habitat in Oregon's coastal watersheds.

Actions / Measures:

ODFW1A1. Establish New Escapement Targets.

Phase 1. New adult wild coho spawner escapement rebuilding criteria have been developed for each of four new disaggregated sub units encompassing all Oregon coastal river basins and lakes (Table 3). The initial criteria levels are defined as half of the production potential estimated by the habitat based production model developed by Tom Nickelson and Pete Lawson that is currently being circulated for peer review and publication (ODFW Attachment 1). For use in the fishery impact adjustment matrix (Table 2, ODFWIIIA1) an upper tier of criteria is defined as 150% of the initial criteria. Initial criteria are intended to define the population levels that each sub-aggregate must attain before any increase in fishery impact will be allowed. Upper tier criteria must be met along with the grandparent generation meeting the initial level before the highest tier of allowable fishing impact can be implemented.

The former Oregon Coast Natural (OCN) escapement goal was based on a single aggregate for the whole Coast. Breaking the goal into smaller components allows for management of the weaker units. Rebuilding criteria are proposed for each sub unit that represent total numbers of spawners. Future fishing opportunity is tied to a constrained fishery management regime that limits impacts in all fisheries contingent upon demonstrated past progress in achievement of spawner escapement rebuilding and improvements in ocean survival conditions for the brood to be fished on in a particular fishing year (ODFWIIIA1).

Table 3: New sub-aggregate areas re-defined from the Oregon Coastal Natural aggregate, with spawner rebuilding criteria (total numbers) for each sub-aggregate.

Area	Target Criteria	Upper Tier
Necanicum R. - Neskowin Cr.	10,700	16,100
Salmon R. - Siuslaw R.	28,500	42,800
Siltcoos R. - Sixes R.	24,400	36,700
Elk R. - Winchuck R. - to be indexed as:	2,700 in Rogue R.b	4,100b

^b Stratified random spawner surveys have not been conducted in the past in the southern sub-aggregate, and counts in the Rogue River will be used as representative of the area, given that the other drainages in the area are minor coho producers. Stratified random sampling of spawners is being initiated in this sub-aggregate and criteria levels will be re-evaluated in the future.

ODFWIB1. Adult Escapement and Juvenile Coho salmon Production Assessment.

We will collect critical information on the status and distribution of wild adult escapement and juvenile coho salmon production on federal, non-federal, and private lands with information summarized and presented using GIS techniques. Extensive, accurate monitoring of numbers and distribution of spawning adults and juvenile salmon is essential to estimate the production of coho salmon, monitor population trends and determine status relative to listing and fishery adjustment criteria.

Phase 1. Continue the new stratified random surveys (SRS) of coho escapement and estimation of smolt production done under existing research studies.

Phase 2. Double the SRS surveys of escapement. Begin monitoring smolt production in representative streams statewide and report in GIS. Initiate studies of estuary coho productivity.

ODFW111C3. Monitor Marine Survival.

Phase 2. We will monitor marine survival of OCN coho produced in selected Oregon coastal index streams. Studies of the ocean survival rates for wild coho will allow more accurate assessment of ocean conditions and marine survival of smolts to adults, leading to an improved ability to manage stocks to achieve spawning escapement goals. Some monitoring sites are being established in phase 1.

3. To develop and conduct future fisheries that do not interfere with the restoration of wild coho salmon stocks.

Actions / Measures:

ODFW11A4. Mark All hatchery Coho.

Phase 1. We will externally mark all Oregon hatchery coho prior to release as smolts, beginning with the 1995 brood. Marking will facilitate the potential development of selective ocean and terminal fisheries targeted on hatchery fish, enhance the ability to monitor the incidence and magnitude of hatchery fish straying on coastal basins spawning grounds, and aid in the development of new hatchery brood stocks based on wild fish.

ODFW111B1. Develop Selective Ocean Coho harvest opportunities.

Phase 2. We will explore opportunities to implement selective ocean coho fisheries targeting on regional marked hatchery coho stocks while minimizing impacts on OCN coho stocks. As opportunities to re-open ocean fisheries arise, proposed fisheries will be directed toward marked hatchery coho and require immediate release of all unmarked coho to protect wild fish. Marked hatchery fish will not be widely available until 1998.

ODFW111B2. Develop Opportunities for Terminal Coho Fisheries.

Phase 2. We will explore opportunities for terminal ocean and freshwater area coho fisheries which target hatchery production while minimizing impacts on wild stocks. Oregon will develop strategies for release of marked hatchery fish and subsequent harvest strategies that target these fish without impacting OCN coho stocks and where there is little likelihood of interacting with wild fish in spawning areas.

4. Minimize hook and release fishery impacts in ocean and terminal area salmon fisheries related to total fishery impacts that include those from "non-landed" catch.

Actions / Measures:

ODFW111C2. Evaluate Coho Hook and release Mortality.

Conduct ocean studies to evaluate coho hook and release mortality rates by gear type, effectiveness of selective fishery gear in targeting single species, and coho salmon encounter rates for marked and unmarked coho in ocean selective fisheries. Studies will be conducted to find gear and fishing techniques that are effective for other species, but minimize likelihood of catching coho, or that facilitate the safe release of wild coho. Such studies will also increase knowledge of the magnitude of effects on coho.

Phase 1. Continue existing studies. Will lose Salmon Disaster funding after 95-97 biennium.

Phase 2. Expand studies, continue efforts currently funded by Salmon Disaster funds.

5. Improve the technical capability, accuracy, and precision of pre-season coho salmon stock predictors (wild and hatchery) and their assessment in pre-season models to evaluate proposed harvest strategies and impacts on wild coho stocks.

Actions / Measures:

ODFW111C1. Develop an Improved Adult Abundance Predictor.

Phase 1. We will develop an improved adult abundance predictor (pre-season) for OCN coho salmon. Oregon will continue efforts to develop a more accurate and precise pre-season predictor of OCN abundance to allow assessment of yearly harvest related impacts. This information is essential to establishing yearly harvest strategies which correctly evaluate impacts on OCN stocks.

Monitoring:
Monitoring and assessment of OCN coho rebuilding will be a mandated requirement that will include yearly evaluation by Oregon and the PFMC to ensure stock rebuilding progress is demonstrated prior to any increase in current minimum harvest impacts. Progress will be evaluated against a monitoring system that includes: 1) annual estimates of adult spawning abundance for each of four geographical sub component stock units. Sampling to be conducted using a statistically valid stratified-random survey methodology (ODFWIB1), 2) assessment of freshwater juvenile abundance during summer residency to monitor abundance and trends within each of four sub units (ODFWIB1), 3) coho smolt production monitoring to evaluate habitat restoration actions and to assess smolt-to-adult survival (ODFWIB1), 4) ocean harvest monitoring of landed catch and evaluation non-catch impacts under current and proposed ocean "selective" marked-only coho fisheries (ODFWIIIC3).

Adequacy:
Oregon is implementing a new stock rebuilding plan for adult spawning escapement and an associated fishery management regime to rebuild OCN coho abundance. Adoption of this plan by the PFMC and Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission will form the foundation for stock recovery within the effected Evolutionary Significant Units (ESUs) described by the NMFS.

Objective A will minimize current harvest impacts in all fisheries and set new concurrent OCN coho stock rebuilding criteria and fishery harvest regime limitations. This plan will deliver adult OCN coho spawning escapement at levels suitable to attain the described stock rebuilding goals while limiting future harvest impacts to a rate commensurate with the rebuilding criteria. No increases in fishing impacts can be allowed without demonstrated increases in coho spawner populations.

Objective B sets in place a new set of OCN coho rebuilding criteria and provides for the needed adult, juvenile and smolt, and harvest monitoring to ensure progress towards meeting the goal is being made. These criteria are based on a coho production model that includes many more relevant factors than earlier modeling attempts, including habitat productivity. Regular annual estimates of coho spawner escapement assure collection of information allowing continual assessment of run strength relative to the criteria.

Objective C establishes that any future PFMC area ocean and Oregon terminal coho fisheries be directed to emphasize the harvest of hatchery stocks. This strategy minimizes impacts on wild stocks in both types of fisheries.

Objective D establishes a goal for assessing non-landed catch mortality, commonly known as hook-and-release mortality, in both ocean and terminal area fisheries to get a better accounting of total harvest-related mortality factors. The addition of these harvest parameters will assist in assigning the correct harvest impacts on OCN coho. The information will also allow assessment of the adequacy of regulations requiring release of unmarked fish.

Objective E provides for the continued refinement of pre-season stock abundance prediction models for both regional hatchery and OCN coho stock groups. Success with these modeling efforts are directly tied to implementing harvest management strategies that will allow for the successful rebuilding of OCN coho.

Taken together, these objectives and the measures developed to meet them represent an entirely new approach to managing salmon harvest. Future fishing opportunity is now based on attainment of specific measurable criteria, rather than the more theoretical and less easily defined Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) concept. Any allowable increases in harvest impact will take place only in response to growth in the coho population, assuring that harvest will not impact rebuilding and restoration efforts.

II. Factor for Decline: Illegal Salmon Catch

In past decades, much concern has been expressed about high seas fisheries conducted by Japan and some other nations in the north Pacific Ocean. These fisheries are now regulated or banned by international agreements. Collected coded wire tag data for coho salmon from these past fisheries indicate that Oregon's coho stocks, and most other Northwest salmon, were not affected by these fisheries, and thus these fisheries were not a factor in the declines. This conclusion was based upon the location of these fisheries and the distribution of Northwest salmon in the north Pacific.

Other forms of illegal salmon harvest in regional and Oregon ocean and terminal area fisheries are not well documented. Enforcement of Oregon's fishing regulations is conducted by the Oregon State Police (OSP). Recent experience of OSP on the Columbia River indicates that illegal harvest is occurring at levels that may impact population health of some stocks. For Oregon coastal streams, OSP reports of poaching activities are not uncommon, but its existence is not likely to have been a primarily factor for the decline of coastal OCN stocks in the past. There can, however, be localized impacts in small streams with smaller coho populations.

Biological Objective:

1. Adequately assess rates of illegal harvest for the purpose of attaining more complete information on overall harvest-related impact and exploitation of OCN coho salmon.

and

2. Ensure that illegal recreational and commercial harvests do not have unacceptable adverse impacts on coho restoration.

Actions / Measures:

The Fish and Wildlife Division of Oregon State Police and ODFW are involved in gaining compliance with the following harvest measures:

Ocean-Commercial: The OSP conducts at-sea boarding and dockside inspections of commercial fishing vessels to monitor species, catch limits, licensing and permit compliance. They ensure that seasons are observed and legal gear is used. They also monitor fish dealers and processors for licensing, species and records compliance. The ODFW conducts extensive port sampling activities in all major (and many minor) ports that are open to ocean salmon fisheries. Regular contact with salmon troll fishermen provides extended opportunities for reducing illegal catch and landings by direct interaction with commercial vessels and local fish processors.

Ocean-Recreational: Monitoring of ocean recreational users is conducted by OSP at sea and dockside to check for license and tag compliance as well as ensure that the appropriate species, sizes, and catch limits are adhered to. Monitoring for compliance may also include conducting investigations. The ODFW conducts extensive ocean recreational angler interviews and biological sampling of catch in all coastal ports adjacent to ocean recreational fisheries. This activity provides the opportunity to educate anglers on current regulations and provides an extended opportunity for monitoring of illegal catch and landings.

Inland-Commercial: The commercial harvest of salmon in the lower Columbia River is monitored by OSP in much the same way as the ocean commercial fishery. This effort also requires the monitoring of fish dealers and processors. The ODFW also conducts extensive lower river commercial catch sampling of river gill netters and monitoring of processing stations. This provides an important partnership link with OSP to monitor salmon catch and fishing activities.

Inland-Recreational: Recreational fisheries in the lower Columbia and in coastal estuaries and streams are monitored for season, species, size, and catch limit compliance by the OSP. Appropriate licenses and tags for the activity are also checked. The ODFW also conducts recreational creel surveys in the lower Columbia and several coastal locations. These activities provide an additional opportunity to monitor angling activities and gain information on both targeted catch rates and prohibited species caught and released.

ODFWIIID1. Emphasize coho restoration in annual Cooperative Enforcement Planning process with Oregon State Police.

Cooperative Enforcement Planning (CEP): the OSP and ODFW conduct joint meetings at the district level each year to coordinate fishery monitoring and sampling activities and to set enforcement priorities. These meetings provide a framework for OSP to direct available staff time to specific time and area fisheries where enforcement is needed. The interaction of OSP and ODFW provides an effective linkage of enforcement, monitoring, and sampling activities in existing fisheries. OSP is an active participant in CSRI and is aware of the need to concentrate on illegal activities that might impact coho recovery. CEP efforts in 1997 are focusing enforcement activities into areas where illegal harvest may be restricting coho restoration.

SMB2. Enforce New Outfitter and Guide Laws.

The Marine Board adopted rules authorized by HB 2093 on April 4, 1996. The rules require all guides to display a decal on boats and provide for revocation and suspension of registrations for violations of state or federal wildlife laws. Rules now in effect are OAR Chapter 250 Division 16. The Marine board will work with OSP and county sheriffs to fully implement these new rules in 1996. Compliance is expected to be high.

ODFW111A1. Minimize Fishery Related Impacts and Develop a Future Management Strategy.

and

ODFW111A2 Manage Estuary and river Salmon Fisheries to Minimize Impact.

Phase 1. These measures establish fishing regimes that provide significant protection to the restoration of coastal coho salmon, as discussed previously. To have the expected effects it will be necessary to achieve a high rate of compliance with these fishery restrictions and regulations. OSP and ODFW are aware of the importance of enforcing these provisions, and high emphasis is being placed on them through the CEP process for 1997 enforcement priorities (ODFWIIID1).

Monitoring:
The OSP and ODFW monitor and enforce ocean and inland salmon regulations adopted by the PFMC and state of Oregon. Through the coordination and implementation of law enforcement activities through the Cooperative Enforcement Planning process of the two groups, the incidence of illegal catch can be monitored and enforced. CEP plans are written documents which are evaluated annually for past performance as part of the development of the next annual plan. Evaluation of the incidence of illegal harvest encountered provides information useful for management planning. Through the measures outlined above, the existence of illegal catch, where identified, is included in the overall harvest impacts and in setting future harvest strategies.

Adequacy:
Through continuing OSP enforcement and ODFW fishery port and river sampling activities described above, the level of illegal harvest can be effectively reduced. The existence of an extensive ODFW port sampling program that samples yearly an average 30-50% of all ocean recreational, 10-50% of commercial landings, and a significant percentage (30-60%) of coastal estuary and river recreational fishery catch, where sampled, are effective measures in reducing illegal harvest.

III. Factor for Decline: Salmon Bycatch

Bycatch is the incidental catch of salmon during legal harvesting of other species. Oregon, and the other west coast states of California and Washington, have extensive domestic shoreside and at-sea trawl ground fisheries that could potentially be a factor in the total impact and exploitation on salmon, including Oregon coastal Natural (OCN) coho stocks. Current fisheries include a directed shoreside and at-sea whiting fishery and a shore-based domestic fishery for all other species collectively. Existing at-sea observer and port sampling programs indicate that coho salmon are a negligible portion of the total salmon bycatch observed, and is not likely to be a significant factor in overall harvest exploitation considerations for OCN coho.

Biological Objective:

1. To fully implement sampling programs that adequately observe and sample bycatch in non-salmonid fisheries at the necessary levels to ensure statistical reliability in the results.

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIIIC4. Continue refinement of the Oregon Pacific Whiting Shoreside Observation Program.

Phase 1. We will continue to refine the existing Oregon (and adjoining states) Pacific Whiting Shoreside Observation Program and federal at-sea fishery observation program to evaluate bycatch in the directed west coast whiting fishery. These programs began in 1991-92. The ODFW has coordinated the development of an extensive sampling program to assess both the directed whiting catch and bycatch of all other species, including salmon. This program has been continued and is re-assessed annually.

ODFWIIIC5. Assess Bycatch in Groundfish Fisheries.

Phase 1. An Enhanced Data Collection Field Program, new in 1996, is being designed to assess the West Coast domestic shoreside trawl groundfish fishery and its bycatch. It is supported by a combination of West coast trawl industry and government funding. Initially, three at-sea observers have been hired to sample catch on participating trawl vessels to assess all bycatch, including salmon. This Oregon-based and coordinated regional program's objective is to increase coast wide samplers to about 10 full time observers in the near future with a goal to sample the fishery at a level of 10% together with a log book program to cover 30% of the active fleet.

Monitoring:
Oregon, in coordination with other West Coast states, is committed to continue the existing whiting shoreside sampling program that includes bycatch observation and analysis. This shoreside program and the companion federal (NMFS) at-sea observer program will provide the necessary monitoring of the fishery for the existence and rate of salmon catch in the Whiting fishery. Coho salmon have been a negligible part of the total salmon bycatch.

Oregon is coordinating a new West Coast Enhanced Data Collection Program in the domestic shore-based groundfish fishery. The intent of this at-sea observer/sampling program is to evaluate trawl fishery bycatch.

Adequacy:
The measures described above are important components in evaluating the occurrence of salmon in west coast trawl fisheries. As noted, existing data collected indicate only occasional and negligible coho salmon in existing trawl fisheries to date. The current trawl bycatch sampling programs have the ability to monitor such interactions in the future and can be an effective tool to alert fishery managers and the fishing industry of potential problems. For example, west coast whiting fishery regulations were revised for the fishery's 1996 season opening following evaluation that impacts on chinook salmon could be substantially lowered in the early spring by revising the time and area opening off Oregon.

IV. Factor for Decline: Ocean Productivity

Multiple conditions in the ocean environment can affect ocean survival of OCN coho salmon. They can vary on annual, decadal and longer time scales, and at irregular intervals. Several environmental changes caused by the interaction of global atmospheric and oceanic conditions have been well studied, such as the famous El Nino, but our ability to predict future El Ninos is not fully developed.

Along the northwest coast, ocean survival of OCN coho is driven by both global and regional oceanic conditions. For example, one strong oscillation of oceanographic conditions along the NW US coast appears to have a "period" of about 40 years. Coho salmon populations will tend to decline during the "low phase" (poor survival) of the cycle and increase during the "high phase" (high survival) of the cycle. A low phase began abruptly in 1976, following several years of good ocean productivity and marine survival for coho. It appears that we may now (1997) be entering into a gradual movement into a high phase again. Scientists' ability to accurately predict such a change, relative to the year-to-year salmon management needs, is poor at best. It can be noted, however, that these ocean conditions are controlling factors in the "high" and "low" abundance observed for Oregon's OCN coho in past years.

Dr. Peter Lawson, ODFW, described the interaction of large cycles in ocean productivity and freshwater productivity (Lawson, P. W., 1993, Cycles in ocean productivity, trends in habitat quality, and the restoration of salmon runs in Oregon, Fisheries 18:8, pp 6-10. ODFW Attachment 3). Since coho populations will decline during periods of low ocean production and it is not possible to influence the magnitude or frequency of those fluctuations, it is imperative to stabilize and improve freshwater production to slow the rate of population decline so that extinction does not occur before ocean productivity increases. That is the core intent of the entire CSRI. Careful adherence to the spawner rebuilding criteria in establishing allowable harvests (ODFW IIIA1) will also play a key role in protecting wild coho stocks in periods of low ocean productivity. Those criteria will result in reduced harvests if spawning stocks decline below the established thresholds or if ocean productivity enters or remains in the low part of the cycle.

Biological Objectives:

1. Manage coho harvest in response to ocean survival conditions

Actions / Measures

ODFW111A1. Minimize Fishery Related Impacts and Develop a Future Management Strategy.

As discussed under the Factor for Decline: Harvest Impacts to Spawner Escapement, a new approach to managing total fisheries impacts has been developed that ties any future increases in fishing opportunity and impact to precisely defined attainment of spawner rebuilding criteria coupled with specific demonstrated levels of ocean survival for the returning brood.

2. Increase our ability to measure and respond to changes in ocean conditions

Actions / Measures

ODFW111C1. Develop an Improved Adult Abundance Predictor.

Phase 1. Develop an improved adult OCN coho salmon predictor (pre-season) that includes parameters of ocean environmental conditions to provide effective pre-season predictions of adult abundance for setting appropriate OCN coho harvest strategies while maintaining coho salmon populations through cyclic low phases in ocean productivity and survival.

Monitoring:
Several data series related to ocean productivity are maintained by ODFW, as described in the Monitoring Plan. Sea temperatures off Charleston and upwelling indices for 420 and 450 are monitored as factors influencing ocean productivity for OCN coho salmon. These data may contribute to development of pre-season predictor models. In addition, sites are being established to provide representative estimates of smolt production and spawner returns to allow calculation of smolt to adult survival rates (ODFWIB1).

The ODFW has worked extensively with ocean environmental parameters in testing new approaches to OCN abundance predictors since 1994. In fact, the PFMC has adopted such a predictive approach, developed by the ODFW, rather than rely on a less precise historical spawner / recruit model that overestimated OCN abundance during the current "low phase" in ocean productivity. The ODFW, PFMC and its technical advisors continue to evaluate this environmental modeling approach each year to assess its pre and post season predictive reliability. The total number of spawning OCN coho is estimated annually by use of the stratified random survey method (ODFWIB1), providing data annually for use in relating pre-season predictions to estimated actual returns.

Adequacy:
The attainment of a statistically-based and accurate pre-season OCN coho salmon predictive model is one of the most important elements to properly develop effective harvest management strategies. The ability to include ocean environmental parameters can play a large part in developing OCN abundance estimates that will directly provide for the attainment of Oregon's proposed OCN coho spawning escapement rebuilding criteria and future rebuilding of the stocks. Progress in improving the accuracy of the evolving model is evaluated annually following estimation of total spawner escapement using the stratified random sampling approach (ODFWIB1).

V. Factor for Decline: Loss of genetic adaptation of wild populations from interbreeding with genetically dissimilar, less fit hatchery fish.

Wild fish, over eons, have developed specialized adaptations to their specific environments through the process of natural selection. This is especially important to anadromous salmonids because of their complex life cycles. Research has demonstrated that local adaptation, sometimes on a surprisingly small geographic or even within basin scale, can play a critical role in the dynamics of specific local populations. Some of these locally important adaptations include life history traits such as run timing, emergence timing, movement within the basin, timing of smoltification and migratory patterns in the ocean. These and other genetically influenced factors can play a significant role in the success of each population based on their "fitness" for their specific habitats.

As fish are brought into hatcheries, subtle changes in selection of genetic traits can take place. Selection for changed run timing can take place if care is not taken to represent all portions of the natural run in the egg take. Growth environments in hatcheries are different from the wild, resulting in different growth and smolting patterns. This can change the ultimate survival of the hatchery reared fish, thus selecting for different traits. Individual fish that are more docile or tolerant of crowded conditions are likely to survive at higher rates in hatchery environments, leading to domestication and producing fish less fit to meet the rigors of the wild environment. Of even greater impact was the practice of using fish from a different location for stocking, thus introducing fish adapted to different environments.

The effects of these potential genetic effects on local wild stocks can vary. If hatchery fish are intercepted in fisheries or removed at fish traps, little impact will occur to wild populations. When hatchery fish, particularly those derived from out of basin sources or domesticated in hatcheries for many years, stray to wild spawning grounds, however, there is concern that interbreeding can take place. Such interbreeding can alter the genetic makeup of the wild population and alter their fitness for their native habitats.

The Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission adopted its Wild Fish Management Policy (WFMP) in 1994. This policy established guidelines for the amount of straying of hatchery fish to spawning areas, partially based on the degree of difference of the hatchery stocks from local wild stocks. On the Oregon coast, all hatchery coho being used now were derived from the wild populations where the fish are stocked. Many of these populations have not received significant input of wild genes recently, however, and thus they are not considered in the highest category under the WFMP that would allow up to 50% hatchery fish on spawning grounds. In stead, they are categorized in a lower category, and under the policy may not make up more than 10% of the fish on spawning grounds. Furthermore, stocking of hatchery coho has been significantly restricted in scope in recent years, with stocking only occurring in 11 basins out of over 100 on the coast, and total numbers stocked have been steadily reduced. In an assessment made in 1994, only 5 of 100 basins were determined to be at genetic risk from hatchery fish.

The significance of genetic alteration of wild coho populations from hatchery fish is debatable. It is known that hatchery fish can alter fitness of wild populations. However, some coastal basins have received little historical stocking, yet populations have declined along with basins receiving more hatchery fish. In general, the use of hatchery fish in coastal basins has been conducted in a manner less likely to cause severe impacts than in some other western basins, such as the Columbia. This suggests that hatchery fish are not the primary cause of the overall decline in wild coastal coho salmon. Nonetheless, steps are being taken to further reduce the potential of genetic impact to wild coastal populations.

Biological Objectives:

1. Reduce the genetic risk to wild populations by reducing the percentage of hatchery fish to less than 10% of the total population spawning in the wild..

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIIA1: Implement Wild Fish Management Strategies

We will fully implement the Wild Fish Management Policy (WFMP) strategies for coastal coho salmon as approved by the Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission in 1994. Actions include: 1) Incorporation of wild fish into hatchery broodstocks (will consider temporary use of captive broodstock developed from wild juveniles if wild runs are insufficient); 2) Reduced percentage of hatchery fish spawning with wild fish through acclimation sites or altering release locations; 3) Reduce the number of hatchery fish released (implementation strategies call for a reduction of 495,000 smolts per year, with further reductions as part of ODFWIIA2); 4) Improved adult capture facilities at hatcheries and fish ladders.

Phase 1. WFMP implementation strategies will be fully implemented for all coastal coho programs as approved by Oregon Fish and Wildlife Commission.

Phase 2. Will conduct monitoring of hatchery : wild ratios on spawning grounds, improve adult capture facilities, and provide additional acclimation facilities as needed.

ODFWIIA2: Reduce Coastal Hatchery Coho Smolt Releases

We will reduce coastal hatchery coho smolt releases from 6.4 million in 1990 and the current 3.47 million to 2.3 million by 1998.

Phase 1. Continue the current trend of reduced stocking, which is being done to increase cost effectiveness given the currently curtailed coho fisheries and reductions in funding, and to decrease the potential effects of possible spawning with wild fish. The reduction will be transferred to Columbia R. hatchery production to maintain coho contribution to any ocean and river fisheries and to increase total fish available due to historically higher return rates for coho from Columbia River hatcheries, if funding allows.

Phase 2. The transfer of production to Columbia River hatcheries will depend on availability of federal funds to operate the hatcheries.

2. To clearly describe the purpose and conduct of all coastal coho hatchery programs

   During evaluations of the many factors potentially responsible for the depressed state of coastal coho populations, it became clear that parties outside ODFW had difficulty obtaining information on the scope, purpose and magnitude of the hatchery programs to assess the potential effects of the hatcheries on wild populations. In order to accurately assess the effects of hatchery programs and to ensure that hatchery programs are managed to minimize potential impacts to wild populations, clear documentation of each program is needed.

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIIA3 - Develop Management Objectives for each Hatchery Programs, Including Genetic Guidelines

Phase 1. We will develop specific management objectives, including genetic guidelines for each coastal coho hatchery program to preserve the genetic resources of hatchery fish. Will review each hatchery program on the coast to: 1) Document the specific purpose for each program: 2) Ensure consistency with sound genetic principles; and 3) Evaluate effectiveness and economic efficiency.

3. To facilitate differentiation of hatchery fish from wild fish on spawning grounds.

   The most critical factor related to potential genetic effects of hatchery fish on wild fish is the degree to which they may be interbreeding. If hatchery fish are intercepted at a high rate in fisheries, return with fidelity to hatcheries or are removed at fish traps the potential for genetic impacts is small. If hatchery fish stray to spawning grounds at high rates, however, the impacts can be more significant. Determining the precise rate of straying has been difficult, since hatchery and wild fish were difficult to differentiate in the field. Easy field identification is needed before accurate and widespread assessment of straying can be conducted to monitor attainment of WFMP guidelines for stray rates.

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIIA4. Mark All Hatchery Coho.

Phase 1. Externally mark all Oregon hatchery coho prior to release as smolts. This program is already underway, beginning with the 1995 brood. Marking will enhance the ability to monitor the incidence and magnitude of hatchery fish straying on spawning grounds, aid in the development of new hatchery broodstocks based on wild fish, and facilitate the potential development of selective fisheries targeted on hatchery fish.

Monitoring:
ODFW will monitor the ratio of hatchery to wild spawners on spawning grounds as part of annual spawning escapement monitoring (ODFWIB1) and through individual spawning ground surveys in the fish districts. All hatchery coho smolts are being externally marked beginning with the 1995 brood, which will return in 1998 (ODFWIIA4). Hatchery fish in the Tillamook area were externally marked sooner, and hatchery : wild ratios will be surveyed beginning in 1997. Prior to mass marking, hatchery fish were identified based on scale patterns, an approach that is considerably more difficult and less reliable.

Results from this monitoring will allow more widespread assessment of the rate of straying of hatchery fish and more precise estimation of the potential genetic risk to wild runs. It is presently believed that hatchery straying is not a serious problem in coastal drainages except in a few specific locations close to hatchery fish release sites. In a few locations where an occasional hatchery fish is found in conjunction with a severely depressed wild run the percentage of hatchery fish can appear high, but the problem is more one of too few wild fish rather than a problem of straying. It is important in such situations to restore wild populations as rapidly as possible. Monitoring of hatchery : wild ratios will either validate that straying is not a widespread problem or result in further modification to hatchery programs.

Adequacy:
For wild populations to maintain maximum reproductive success, productivity, and capacity to rebuild they must be genetically adapted for the specific basin they occupy. Infusion of genetic material from out-of-basin or domesticated hatchery fish potentially puts these important adaptations at risk. Therefore, to control this potential impediment to coho rebuilding, spawning by genetically dissimilar hatchery fish with wild populations must be limited to very low levels. The current hatchery program is nearly in compliance with the WFMP now, and should achieve full compliance very soon, offering significant protection to the genetic health of wild coastal coho populations. The mass marking and escapement monitoring described here will provide widespread information that will allow assessment of stray rates coast wide. This provides the data necessary for determining if significant threats to wild coho exist. If threats are detected, appropriate adjustments or alterations will be made to stocking programs.

VI. Factor for Decline: Competition with hatchery reared fish.

In addition to the potential for genetic risks to wild fish from hatchery fish discussed above, hatchery fish can also compete with wild fish, particularly if they are stocked at a larger size than wild fish at the same time. This could be detrimental to wild fish if resources, particularly food and cover, are limited. However, most hatchery coho are stocked as smolts that are expected to migrate immediately to the ocean, minimizing the amount of time hatchery and wild coho will be in direct competition for limited freshwater resources. Given the overall low populations of coho, it is also not certain that resources for smolts in freshwater are limiting. Hatchery coho stocked as unfed fry appear to survive particularly poorly, and may be less fit than wild fry. Even though competition with wild coho does not appear to be a major cause for depressed populations of coastal coho, especially since hatchery fish are only stocked in 11 out of over 100 basins on the coast, this concern is being addressed through further reduction in numbers of coho stocked.

Biological Objectives:

1. Reduce the potential for competition between juvenile hatchery and wild coho by decreasing the number of hatchery fish released.

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIIA2: Reduce Coastal Hatchery Coho Smolt Releases

We will reduce coastal hatchery coho smolt releases from 6.4 million in 1990 and the current 3.47 million to 2.3 million by 1998.

Phase 1. Continue the current trend of reduced stocking, which is being done to increase cost effectiveness given the currently curtailed coho fisheries and reductions in funding, and to decrease the potential effects of possible spawning with wild fish. The reduction will be transferred to Columbia R. hatchery production to maintain coho contribution to any ocean and river fisheries and to increase total fish available due to historically higher return rates for coho from Columbia River hatcheries, if funding allows.

Phase 2. The transfer of production to Columbia River hatcheries will depend on availability of federal funds to operate the hatcheries.

Monitoring:
Annual production records for each coastal hatchery raising coho detail the numbers raised and the numbers liberated at each specific location, along with the other specific information contained in the hatchery monitoring records.

Adequacy:
The importance of competition between hatchery and wild coho is relatively unknown. However, the proposed reductions in smolt production will serve to lower this risk below what it has been in the recent past.

VII. Factor for Decline: Low density reproductive failure of wild populations.

At extremely depressed densities, spawning populations of coho salmon may fail to sustain themselves due to inability to find a mate, inbreeding depression, and other unknown depensatory factors. Once a population has fallen to such low levels extinction is likely unless the number of spawners can be increased through other means.

Biological Objectives:

1. Evaluate the potential and effectiveness of using hatchery production to rebuild or restore critically depressed wild populations of coastal coho salmon.

   To date, hatcheries have been used to produce fish primarily to support fisheries. The use of hatcheries to reintroduce wild fish or supplement particularly weak natural runs has been a relatively unused approach. Given the low numbers of some specific populations, hatchery rearing of wild origin fish may provide a means of either reintroducing wild coho into areas where they have largely been extirpated, or to temporarily boost populations in order to raise depressed spawning populations above minimum genetic thresholds.

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIIB1: Utilize Hatcheries to Rebuild Wild Runs

We will develop a plan to utilize hatchery production derived from wild parents to aid restoration of depleted wild runs through reintroduction of wild fish into extirpated areas or to temporarily boost abundance of particularly weak stocks. Initial areas of concern are the Nehalem, Tillamook Bay, Salmon River, and Alsea basins. Actions under this measure will include: 1) Development of broad implementation strategies to utilize hatchery production to assist in the rebuilding of wild runs; 2) Identification of locations where wild populations may be aided by hatchery fish and development of site specific implementation strategies prior to stocking; 3) Monitoring and evaluation of stocking programs utilizing adaptive management approaches to evaluate and refine the program.

Phase 1. Develop broad management strategies for using hatchery production to rebuild wild runs. Identify site specific locations where hatchery fish may be used to augment natural populations.

Phase 2. Following review and adoption of the plan developed in phase 1, we would stock fish from wild broodstock to help rebuild or reintroduce wild coho in an experimental program designed to determine the effectiveness of the approach.

Monitoring:
This action is essentially a pilot project, and verification of the effectiveness of using hatchery fish of wild origin to rebuild wild populations is its primary objective. Therefore, monitoring will be a major component of this action whenever such stocking is initiated.

Adequacy:
This action is a comprehensive evaluation of rebuilding critically depressed wild coho populations with hatchery fish developed from local wild broodstocks. In the past, such evaluations have been done with non-local, domesticated hatchery stocks. Use of new techniques, including genetic marking, to carefully evaluate the success of this approach will also be different from how such evaluations have been made in the past. Plans will be widely reviewed before the actions are implemented.

VIII. Factor for decline: Reduced nutrients (carcass nutrient cycle) from depressed runs

Reduced numbers of coho salmon spawning in coastal streams has resulted in fewer carcasses contributing to the growth and survival of juvenile salmonids rearing within and downstream from coho spawning areas. Carcasses alone are not as helpful to juveniles as live adults spawning in streams because redd construction dislodges insects and salmon eggs from the gravel, providing food for juveniles. However, carcasses provide nutrients to boost growth and survival when juveniles feed on carcass tissue, when they feed on organisms that consume carcass tissue, and when they feed on organisms that incorporate nutrients derived from decomposition of carcasses that was reincorporated through plant and animal food webs within and adjacent to streams. Juvenile salmonids may be specifically adapted to benefit from unique minerals or other components of adult salmon tissues obtained in the ocean. Increased growth and survival of juveniles in the stream should result in more abundant and larger (and/or more "fit") smolts that have higher survival rates in the ocean, thereby increasing abundance of adults.

Experimental evidence suggests artificial carcass placement contributes to the above processes with resultant benefits to growth and survival , so addition of carcasses in areas of low spawner abundance may provide benefits to coastal coho. However, the increase in growth, survival and adult production that can be expected from a given density of carcass placement cannot be predicted accurately. Although the amount of nutrients provided to stream systems by adult salmon was found to be substantial relative to other sources where salmon runs are large, habitat conditions and water temperature likely have larger impacts on juvenile coho growth and survival.

Biological Objectives:

1. ncrease the growth and survival of juvenile coho salmon in a set of streams where spawner abundance is depressed by increasing the abundance of adult salmon carcasses in spawning areas during and shortly after the spawning season.

Actions / Measures:

DFWIVB4. Use Hatchery Carcasses to Increase Coho Production

Pursue funds, landowner cooperation, and labor to restore benefits to juvenile salmonid production through placement of hatchery salmon carcasses in priority stream reaches. Salmon production has been shown to benefit directly from food and nutrients derived from salmonid carcasses. Carcass placement will be considered only in steams that are not water quality limited.

Phase 1. Carcass placement and limited monitoring was initiated under DEQ permits in a few streams in 1996. Permit applications will be made to DEQ for a multi-year program starting in the fall of 1997 that involves more streams and includes a coordinated monitoring program to detect effects on salmon and water quality. Volunteer efforts are being organized to place carcasses in selected test streams.

Phase 2. Efforts will increase as new field staff become available (ODFWIVB2, phase 2) and if results from test streams are encouraging.

Monitoring:
ODFW pathologists will use existing monitoring programs to screen out batches of hatchery carcasses that pose significant disease risks if placed in streams. ODFW's existing hatchery management database system will track how many carcasses of each species are sent out by date for placement in each stream basin. District biologist staffs will maintain records of how many carcasses of each species are placed in each stream section by date. District biologist staffs will conduct periodic surveys to monitor retention and/or movement of carcasses in a selection of streams. A more intensive research project will be designed using a selection of treatment and reference streams to estimate benefits of carcass placement as a practical management tool, with conclusive results on benefits to coho salmon and other salmonids not anticipated for several years. The design will be coordinated with DEQ so that agency can match its sampling program to ODFW's carcass placement program for the purpose of monitoring changes in water quality.

Adequacy:
Addition of carcasses in areas of low spawner abundance should provide benefits to coastal coho, but the amount of benefit that can be expected from a given level of carcass placement in a stream cannot yet be predicted accurately, and the number of hatchery carcasses of coho, chinook, and steelhead expected to be available for placement (10,000- 20,000 per year) will allow treatment of a relatively small proportion of coastal coho streams. There is some uncertainty about quantitatively applying existing research results to broad scale application to Oregon coastal streams because there are so many variables affecting juvenile coho growth and survival. Providing an adequate experimental design to test effectiveness of a broad scale application of the carcass placement appears to be challenging and potentially very expensive.

Predation: Key Parameter for Restoring Salmon Populations

Issue Background

Salmon live in a complex ecosystem that contains many threats to their existence. One factor often suggested as a cause for the present declines is predation. Juvenile salmon are prey for a variety of animals, including insects, other fish, freshwater and marine mammals and birds. Adult salmon are prey for marine mammals. Such predation is a natural occurrence and comprises a portion of the natural mortality that affects salmon populations between hatching and spawning. Some of this predation will never be subject to human control and will undoubtedly continue. Predacious insects and various bird species will almost certainly never be considered for management to benefit salmon. Management or control of other species, however, has been suggested.

Because predators have always been part of the salmonid ecosystem, it appears logically unlikely that predation has become a significant factor in the decline of salmon. Even if predation has not been a major cause of the decline, however, depressed runs may be more significantly impacted by predation than if populations were at healthy levels, and heavy localized predation could potentially limit salmon restoration.

Growth in the concern over predation has occurred because of changes in the likely magnitude of predation. There is no certain information on what constitute "natural" population levels of predators, but there is agreement that populations of several prominently visible predator species have been increasing over the past few decades. This has been true for California sea lions, harbor seals and cormorants. Obvious growth of populations and visible feeding activity by these predators suggests that local predation could be heavy, at least in local situations.

In addition, new predator species have been added to the ecosystem. Legal and illegal introductions of predacious fish have been made in a number of coastal drainages. Striped bass, largemouth bass, smallmouth bass, bluegill, crappie, bullheads and yellow perch have become established in a number of locations, raising concern over potential predation on salmon. Results of these introductions have been inconsistent, with obvious impacts to salmon populations in some cases and negligible impacts in others.

Responding to the issue of predation is made difficult by the fact that there is little objectively obtained data that defines the magnitude of predatory losses to salmon from the various predatory species. Furthermore, it is not certain that effective remedies could be identified or implemented to address excessive predation. Thus, actions developed for CSRI are focused on gaining reliable information on the actual impacts to salmon from predation to allow reasoned consideration of the need for management and possible management approaches. Responses to localized predation are based on current information and will utilize currently available techniques.

Factor for Decline: Predation by Pinnipeds and Sea Birds

While most reviews of the scientific literature suggest natural predation by pinnipeds and sea birds has not been a direct or significant factor in the decline of most salmon stocks, there is wide-spread public concern about effects of these predators on coastal salmon populations in Oregon. It is also important to note that most examinations of this interaction are dated and few studies have focused on the effects of predation on specific salmonid stocks. Confounding this situation is observation of significant increases in abundance of certain predator populations (e.g. pinnipeds and cormorants) in areas where coho stocks are at low abundance. In these cases, predation by locally abundant predators could have a negative effect on recovery of depressed coho stocks.

Biological Objective:

1. To determine and evaluate the impacts of predation by Pinnipeds and sea birds on coho salmon.

   We need to determine and evaluate the potential for negative affects to the recovery of depressed coho stocks through predation by locally abundant Pinniped and avian predators, including estimates of the increased recovery time resulting from losses to localized predation in specific systems. We also need to relate the significance of predation to other factors for decline.

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIC2a & b: Determine Predator Impacts from Pinnipeds and Sea Birds

Phase 2. Evaluate the potential for negative impacts on coho stocks from localized predation by sea birds and pinnipeds in estuaries and rivers. This work will involve field research activities at selected sites to examine predator food habits, estimate salmonid consumption rates, and evaluate the affects of such predation on coho recovery. Given this information, the importance of predation can be assessed along with other factors which may be affecting recovery to guide appropriate and necessary management actions.

2. Propose management actions as needed in relation to the relative significance of predation.

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIC1: Policy on Management of Salmonid Predators

Phase 1. ODFW will develop a set of state policies and guidelines on the issues of salmonid predation within the framework of federal responsibility for certain predatory species. ODFW will work with the NMFS and USFWS and the other west coast states to develop an Oregon policy on predation issues and management that includes state concerns about predation in federal management plans and action for these species.

ODFWIC3: Predator Management

Phase 1 & 2. Manage obvious predation problems at specific sites with current levels of understanding using currently authorized methods. Such efforts will focus on known problem areas in rivers and estuaries (e.g. natural restrictions or barriers) and at structures which concentrate salmon and attract predators (e.g. fish passage facilities, ladders, etc.).

At the present time, the only active predator management activity is the legislatively mandated program to haze cormorants from three estuaries during the spring when coho smolts are abundant. Previous observations in the Tillamook, Nestucca and Nehalem estuaries indicated heavy feeding activity by large numbers of cormorants concurrent with large numbers of smolts present. The legislature authorized non-lethal hazing on the three estuaries in 1996 and 1997 to move cormorants to other areas to feed, hopefully off shore.

Monitoring:
Pinniped populations statewide are monitored by ODFW on an annual basis during peak breeding or migratory periods. Numbers of pinnipeds during these times at individual bays and rivers are recorded. Additional monitoring at other times of the year will be needed to relate local pinniped abundance to timing of adult coho returns and smolt outmigration periods.

No coast wide monitoring of cormorants is done by ODFW, but counts of cormorants are being made in the Tillamook, Nehalem and Nestucca estuaries as part of the legislatively approved cormorant hazing program. Counts in 1996 suggested that cormorant numbers were reduced. Smolt to adult survival estimates for hatchery fish liberated through those drainages in 1996 and 1997 will be compared to survival rates prior to hazing and to survival rates in other non-hazed estuaries to determine if any differences can be related to the hazing efforts.

Ongoing activities to reduce predation at specific problem sites will be monitored and reviewed internally (ODFW) and externally (with NMFS, USFWS) through established annual reporting and review processes.

Adequacy:
Development of an ODFW state policy on predation issues and concerns will help guide state actions and will result in better coordination with federal agencies with management authority for certain salmonid predators. Conducting new research specifically aimed at determining predation levels on specific coho stocks and evaluating the effects of such predation on coho recovery will allow any management actions that may be considered necessary to be based on valid science rather than on circumstantial observations. Ongoing actions to reduce obvious predation at areas where fish passage problems occur will benefit those individual stocks and will alleviate some level of public concern for predation impacts. Experimental hazing of cormorants may improve relative survival of smolts in those estuaries and may provide information useful for consideration in other areas where cormorants congregate to feed.

Factor for decline: Interactions with exotic fishes.

Introduced fishes may prey on or compete with coho salmon where juvenile coho rear in or migrate through habitats occupied by the introduced species. This occurs in coastal lakes and reservoirs that have tributaries used by coho for spawning and that also contain warm water fish populations. These waters include Floras Lake, Tenmile Lake system (Tenmile, Eel and Clear lakes), Tahkenitch Lake, Siltcoos Lake, Woahink Lake, Sutton and Mercer lake system, and Devils Lake. Coastal lake systems historically supported strong runs of wild coho salmon. Lake rearing is estimated to have accounted for 80 percent of the coho production from the Tenmile System. Lake rearing of coho still occurs in some systems, but much of that value has been lost due to a combination of habitat degradation and/or competition and predation by introduced fish species. Habitat changes have favored the introduced species rather than coho. In the Tenmile System all lake production has been lost.

In addition to warm water fishes in the coastal lakes, both the Coos and Umpqua estuaries contain striped bass and American shad. The Umpqua River also supports smallmouth bass in the mainstem and a few tributaries. The Umpqua River also supports smallmouth bass in the mainstem and a few tributaries. Umpqua squawfish, endemic to the Umpqua Basin, have in the last decade become established in the Rogue River by unknown circumstances.

More detail on the occurrence and implications of introduced fishes to coho salmon can be found in the report by Temple and Daily (ODFW Attachment 4).

Biological objective:

1. Determine and evaluate the potential for negative effects to restoration of depressed coho stocks from predation and competition by locally abundant exotic fishes.

   We need to understand the actual impact of exotic fishes on coho salmon to determine the significance of this factor to coho recovery and in relation to other factors for decline. We also need to estimate the increased recovery time resulting from losses to localized predation and competition in specific systems.

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIC2c. Predator Impacts from Exotic Fish

Phase 2. We will evaluate the potential for impacts from predation by introduced fish to salmon restoration. Despite evidence that exotic fish have impacted coho populations in some specific locations, there is presently little information on the actual magnitude of predatory losses to salmon throughout the coastal drainages. Research studies will be conducted to evaluate the impact of predation by exotic fish (and native fish in some cases) to coho restoration and to determine the number of waters where restoration is being impacted by fish predation. This information will allow appropriate prioritization of efforts to deal with predation by exotic fishes.

2. Take management actions based on evaluation of costs, benefits, and expectation of success.

Actions / Measures:

ODFWIC3. Predator Management (exotic fishes).

Phase 2. We will manage exotic fish predators in specific problem areas, with current levels of understanding about predatory interactions, as necessary.

As discussed in the report by Temple and Daily (ODFW Attachment 4), predation by exotic fishes can impact coho production, but the actual impact attributable to predation is confounded by the environmental changes that have taken place in many coho waters, particularly the coastal lakes. There also are no easy management actions which can be applied to reduce or eliminate this factor. Removal of exotic fishes is often controversial and is not always effective in large systems. Furthermore, history has suggested that the public will simply reestablish popular exotic sport fish, negating the benefits of the removal. Relaxation of harvest regulations is unlikely to affect the total biomass of warm water predators like largemouth and smallmouth bass, and the other warm water species already have liberal limits. Despite these difficulties, we will act on specific problem areas where feasible.

Monitoring:
The strength of coho spawning runs to coastal rivers is estimated annually through spawning escapement surveys carried out coast wide. To the extent that juvenile production monitoring is carried out in systems where exotic fishes are present, further information may be available for assessment of changes in coho production which might occur from changes in fish management in these areas. Some monitoring of largemouth bass populations routinely occurs in the coastal lakes having important bass fisheries; that work could become more focused if it was needed to support specific evaluation activities related to the predation issue. Likewise, the smallmouth bass population in the Umpqua system is intermittently sampled for population structure and exploitation information. Striped bass production in Coos River is estimated annually from samples obtained by seining.

Adequacy:
Mortality from predation and competition by exotic fishes is a coho recovery issue to the extent that coho population sustainability is limited by that mortality source. At production levels beyond a sustainability threshold, the issue becomes one of balancing the public values of increased coho production against the costs of management changes to favor coho and the foregone values of the affected resident fisheries . If sustainability is an issue, the measures proposed can lead to a systematic assessment of the potential for relief from predation losses.

Information from studies on largemouth bass (Tenmile Lakes), striped bass (Umpqua and Coos Rivers), and smallmouth bass (Umpqua River) can be used in characterizing expected interactions with coho salmon. The current ability of coastal lake systems to provide lake-rearing for coho salmon ranges from non-existent (as in the Tenmile Lakes) to some limited but unmeasured capacity. The ability of coho to rear in these lakes is constrained by introduced fishes, exotic vegetation (especially Egeria densa), sedimentation, warming, and other environmental changes. The potential to increase lake-rearing depends in part on the relative constraints imposed by these factors and the feasibility to overcome them. The loss of warm water fishing opportunities which will occur if exotic fishes are eradicated or substantially reduced in abundance will create a very serious public policy issue. In addition, methods which might be used to affect reduction of exotic fishes and vegetation (control through piscicides and herbicides; grass carp; watershed management prescriptions) will raise serious environmental and policy issues as well.